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A 1.5x cashout feels safe. It busts roughly a third of the time. This shows the true probability of reaching each multiplier, and how long you typically wait for one.
| Cash out at | Chance per round | Hits per 100 rounds | Median wait |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.1x | 90.0% | 90 | 0 rounds |
| 1.2x | 82.5% | 83 | 0 rounds |
| 1.5x | 66.0% | 66 | 1 rounds |
| 2x | 49.5% | 50 | 1 rounds |
| 3x | 33.0% | 33 | 2 rounds |
| 5x | 19.8% | 20 | 3 rounds |
| 10x | 9.9% | 10 | 7 rounds |
| 20x | 5.0% | 5 | 14 rounds |
| 50x | 2.0% | 2 | 35 rounds |
| 100x | 0.990% | 1 | 70 rounds |
| 1000x | 0.099% | 0 | 700 rounds |
Assumes the standard crash distribution where the probability of reaching x is (1 − edge)/x. Individual operators may differ slightly.
It wins more often, but you win less each time and the expected loss per round is identical. Safety here only means lower variance.
No. Doubling after a loss changes the shape of your results, not the expected value, and it runs into the table limit and your own bankroll long before it runs into a win.
That instant bust is how most crash games take their house edge. It happens on roughly the edge percentage of rounds.